A new study from World Weather Attribution has shown that the 2023/24 storm season in UK and Ireland was made 20% heavier by climate change – and warns that it will continue to cause an increase in extreme winter storms combining strong winds and heavy rainfall.

Scientists from the United Kingdom, Ireland, the Netherlands, Sweden and Germany, including scientists from each of the National Meteorological Services in the Western Europe storm naming group, collaborated to assess to what extent human induced climate change and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) influenced the average storm severity, using the wind-based Storm Severity Index (SSI) over a wide region encompassing the United Kingdom and Ireland.

The study finds that the 2023/24 storm season, studied by stormy day wind severity, associated rainfall, and accumulated seasonal rainfall in October-March, has brought deaths, flooding, transport disruptions and power outages, among other impacts, to the UK and Ireland. The flooding had a significant impact on food production.

During the winter half-year of 2023/2024, western Europe experienced a series of damaging storms. These storms led to disruptions and the associated precipitation caused exacerbated flood risks. The study says that the jet stream was stronger than normal, which likely contributed to how strong the storms became. Impacts of individual storms can be worsened when the soils are already very wet due to preceding sustained rainfall or a succession of storms over a similar area, leading to saturation, increased run-off and risk of flooding.

Covered in Water Briefing and The Guardian